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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY

000
FXUS61 KBGM 221131
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
631 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
A clipper system will bring snow showers to NY and PA through
Saturday, while chilly temperatures linger through next week.
Another storm will move into the Mid-Atlantic early next week
and bring snow to our region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A clipper system will swing winds to a west-northwest direction
today, shifting a lake effect snow band southward toward
LaFayette, Auburn, and Oneida. This snow band will intensify
later this afternoon and overnight. Given the high levels of
lake induced instability and upslope flow coming off Ontario,
high end advisory criteria snow amounts appear certain.

In addition, a very unstable lower atmosphere will yield
conditions conducive to squall formation across our NY counties
and possibly the northern tier of PA through late this afternoon.
Little more than a dusting of snow is forecast outside of lake
bands over any given 12-hour period. But squalls will cause
quick, localized accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and brief
whiteouts.

High pressure rotating out of the Ohio Valley will weaken snow
showers Saturday afternoon as chilly air rolls into the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
335 AM Update:

A few lingering light snow showers will be possible across the
Finger Lakes Region Saturday evening, but otherwise a mainly dry
night will be in store as high pressure moves into the area by
Sunday morning. With 850mb temperatures still around 16C,
low temperatures are expected to be in the middle single digits
to mid teens. Some clearing is expected across Oneida County and
therefore lows there may be a few degrees below zero
(especially the northern portion of the county). In addition,
while winds will be slowly decreasing as the night progresses,
winds may still gust to 15-25 mph at times. This may result in
wind chills in the -15F to -20F range in northern Oneida County.
A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed at a later time there.

Sunday will be quiet with partly sunny skies as high pressure
will be in control. While temperatures will still be several
degrees below normal, it will not be nearly as cold as Saturday.
It will also not be nearly as windy. High temperatures are
expected to be in the upper teens to mid 20s, with parts of the
Wyoming Valley possibly approaching 30.

High pressure moves east of the area Sunday night. Generally
partly cloudy skies are expected, although clouds will increase
somewhat late in the night/early Monday morning ahead of the
next system. Lows are expected to be in the upper single digits
to upper teens, with lower single digits in northern Oneida
County.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
335 AM Update:

The potential for a storm system to impact the area late Monday
through midday Tuesday continues to increase, especially for
Northeast PA. Otherwise, mainly quiet weather is expected for
much of the remainder of the week after this system.

Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that most of
the area will be dry Monday morning and early afternoon with
just continued increasing clouds. Low pressure is expected to
track east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Mid-
Atlantic Monday through Tuesday. While it is still uncertain how
far north the precipitation shield will get due to a blocking
high to the north, guidance continues to trend a bit further
north. While the 00Z GFS is still one of the further south
solutions, even this model has trended northward with each model
cycle. With this forecast package, we increased PoPs to likely
for most of Northeast PA for the Monday night timeframe. Still
only chance PoPs at this time for the Southern Tier of NY
northward as it remains highly uncertain how far north the snow
will get. The storm system likely begins to move east/away from
the area by late Tuesday, therefore allowing the snow to taper
off from west to east. Too early at this time to talk about
snowfall amounts, but the potential for at least a plowable snow
is increasing. Highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in
the mid 20s to lower 30s.

High pressure is then expected to keep conditions mainly quiet
for the remainder of the workweek along with seasonably cold
temperatures. Some model guidance is hinting at another storm
system developing off the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast coast around
the Thursday timeframe, but right now it looks to stay well
south of our region. This could change as we get closer though,
so it is worth watching.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Snow showers will spread across the region today, first
affecting areas near the KRME terminal this morning, then
dropping toward KSYR between 14z and 16z.

Some of these snow showers will develop into squalls with brief
LIFR conditions possible. Predicting which terminals these
squalls will affect is very difficult and will need to be
handled with amended forecasts.

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will degrade to IFR and MVFR
today as snow shower activity increases. West winds will gust
over 20 knots at times, causing blowing snow.

Snow showers will decrease Friday night for a short period of
time, allowing VFR conditions to prevail at most terminals.

Outlook...
Saturday...More of the same with snow showers, low clouds, and
MVFR-IFR restrictions. Highest chances shift toward KSYR, KITH
and KBGM by Saturday morning.

Saturday night through Monday morning...high pressure and VFR
conditions.

Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Possible restrictions with
snow. Accumulations possible on runways. Highest chance for
restrictions at KAVP, KELM and KBGM.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for NYZ017-018-036-037.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ009.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...BJG
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...DJP

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather