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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY

FXUS61 KBGM 221926

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
326 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023

High pressure will remain in control through the afternoon. A
warm front will move through overnight, bringing very warm
temperatures and rain showers tonight into Thursday. A cold
front will move through Thursday afternoon, bringing rain
showers into Thursday evening and a return of cool temperatures
into the weekend.


315 PM Forecast...

A few hours of clearing late this morning into the early
afternoon allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to low
60s across the area. Clouds are moving in from the west so
heating should be peaking here within the next hour or so. A few
returns are showing up on the radar, moving across the Finger
Lakes but the boundary layer is so dry that all of this is
virga. PoPs were left in across CNY as higher elevations may be
able to see a few showers if some heavier precip can develop
but most locations shouldn`t see anything given the very dry

A warm front will push through tonight, bringing rain showers to the
area after midnight and keeping temps in the mid 40s across much of
the region with higher elevations dropping to the low 40s. This is
very warm for the end of March, with temps 15-20 degrees above

Weak isentropic lift behind the front will allow for scattered rain
showers to continue through the overnight hours and into Thursday
morning. A weak trough will develop ahead of an approaching cold
front, moving into the region from the Great Lakes. The front
currently looks to move through the area during the afternoon hours,
which combined with mid level vorticity advection over the area and
the surface trough ahead of the front will generate stratiform
showers along the front, slowly moving from NW to SE through the
afternoon and into the late evening. Temps on Thursday will start
off very warm, rising into the upper 50s to low 60s by early
afternoon. The cold front pushing through will drop temps into the
40s across NY by the evening but NEPA will still be in the mid 50s
into the late evening as the front slogs its way SE.

There is a very shallow area of CAPE over NEPA Thursday
afternoon, but it looks like warm air aloft will cap this and
keep any real convection from developing. There is a chance for
general thunder in the area but confidence was not high enough
to include this in the forecast.


High pressure will build into the region Friday allowing for some
clearing across CNY further away from the frontal boundary may still
give NE PA a passing shower or two. Temperatures look to fall to
around freezing with some radiational cooling.

Low pressure along the boundary looks is still modeled to track from
the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The departing high pressure to
our north delivers marginally cold air for possible mixed
precipitation early Saturday. However, warm air advection looks to
quickly win out given the modeled track of the low pressure. most m
modeled soundings do show the warmer temperatures moving in
faster aloft, so continued the mention of some light freezing
rain. With temperatures warming into the 40`s everyone should
change to rain during the day. Any snow accumulation looks light
and confined to Oneida county and the higher elevations in the
Western Catskills and south of Syracuse. Any ice accumulation
looks very light and may not accumulate at all given the
marginal surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance has also
trended downward on the flooding threat this weekend but a few
points hitting minor are not out of the question.


Return to northwest flow Saturday night and Sunday with clouds and
lingering lake effect precipitation as temperatures look to be in
the 30`s and 40`s (some low 50`s in NE PA). Some additional minor
snow accumulations are possible in the same locations as
Saturday morning.

Some temporary clearing from a transient high pressure system
Sunday night into Monday with similar temperatures to the prior
day. Ensemble guidance is actually more divergent on the
possible outcomes with the next system compared to 24 hours
ago. The main theme though is to slow down any precipitation
arrival till Monday night and keep some rain and snow chances
around, perhaps to as late as early Wednesday. Lows look to be
around 30 with highs in the 40`s, so both rain and snow still


Clear skies across the area this morning will turn cloudy this
afternoon as a high deck of thick cirrus moves overhead. VFR
conditions are expected through the evening across all
terminals. A few showers may pop up across the area but the low
levels of the atmosphere are so dry that precip should not reach
the ground.

Steadier rain is expected to move into the area tonight as a
warm front moves through. This will allow for ceilings to fall
to MVFR into the morning hours at all terminals. AVP/BGM/ITH/ELM
will see a lull in showers during the afternoon but ceilings
should fall to Fuel Alt as a warmer airmass moves into the area
from the SW and allows ceilings to fall. SYR and RME are
expected to have showers through the morning hours with ceilings
at Fuel Alt.

Towards the end of the TAF period, some guidance was hinting at
ceilings falling to IFR across all terminals but confidence in
this occurring was too low to put it in all the TAFs at this
time. Currently, the most confidence in IFR ceilings is at BGM
and RME during the early afternoon due to wind direction an
consistency in model runs. All other terminals were left at low
end Fuel Alt ceilings as either the wind direction was not
optimal for low ceilings or rain showers were absent for an
extended period.


Thursday afternoon and night...Restrictions possible with rain
showers likely at times.

Friday...Mainly VFR; Slight chance for showers and restrictions
at AVP.

Saturday...Restrictions expected Saturday with a mix of rain and

Sunday... A few rain and snow showers could lead to brief
restrictions at the New York terminals.





Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather