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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY

000
FXUS61 KBGM 021536
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1036 AM EST Sat Mar 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring periods of rain, along with
overcast and cool conditions for the rest of today. Quiet and
very warm weather returns for Sunday and Monday, with highs back
in the upper 50s to mid 60s under partly sunny skies. Chances
for rain increase for the middle and end of the upcoming work
week, but temperatures remain mild for this time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1035 AM Update:

Temperatures have been trending a few degrees cooler than
previously forecast with the rain-cooled air. With rain expected
most of the day, especially during the time of peak heating,
lowered forecast high temperatures by a few degrees for today.
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track and no other changes
were made.

645 AM Update

Surface temperatures seem to be very close to freezing and
continuing to slowly rise over the higher terrain locations.
Have not heard of any icing issues or snow yet. Think this
wintry mix potential is now waning quickly, and we`ll just be
dealing with plain rain, showers and drizzle through this
evening. Current SPS expires at 730 AM, and temperatures very
well may be above freezing in just about all locations by then.
Don`t foresee any issues in the western Mohawk Valley or Oneida
county as temperatures are generally in the mid-30s here.

430 AM Update

Main concerns in this period will be a coastal low bringing a
brief wintry mix to the highest elevations early this morning,
and periods of rain/drizzle to the rest of the area through this
evening. It will be a damp, dreary, overcast day out there
today. A few locations above 1600-1800 feet are between 30-32
degrees early this morning across NE PA, the eastern Southern
Tier/Susquehanna Region and Catskills of CNY. From the road
sensor data available on the Keystone and NY Mesonet, it
appears the main roads are generally just above 32 degrees, but
with it being so close went ahead and issued a Special Weather
Statement, and maintained the mention of localized icy spots in
the HWO. This brief wintry mix of sleet, a few snow flakes and
isolated pockets of freezing rain will transition to plain rain
for all locations in our forecast area between 7-10 AM this
morning. The rest of the day will feature periods of steady
rain, and temperatures will eventually reach into the 40s as
moisture and heating increase under a persistent southerly flow.
QPF amounts will be between a tenth to half inch for most
locations by the time the rain ends this evening. There could
also be some patchy fog around today, mainly over the hilltops.

The low pressure system exits eastward tonight, but the weak
flow will allow plenty of low level moisture to linger over the
region. This will keep skies cloudy, with areas of fog and
perhaps even isolated drizzle before midnight. Otherwise, it
stays mild with lows in the mid-30s to lower 40s.

A mid and upper level ridge builds over the area on Sunday, with
a weak surface high also developing later in the day. Dry air
will be advecting in from the south at 700mb and
above...however low level moisture will be trapped under
875-900mb. This will likely lead to a morning stratus cloud
layer, which should eventually become broken to scattered by
afternoon...leading to partly sunny conditions. Confidence on
exact timing for skies to become partly sunny is still low-
moderate, with uncertainty remaining in this detail. Followed
the NBM at this time, which was rather optimistic considering
the stronger early March sun and that the sounding was very dry
(i.e. no mid or high clouds above the thin low level stratus layer)

Winds will be light, northerly under 10 mph and highs look to
reach the mid-50s to lower 60s with warm temperatures aloft
around +6C at 850 mb.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
340 AM Update...

A ridge of high pressure from 300mb down to the surface will
cover the NE US Sunday night into Monday. The ridge axis will
slide east of our CWA during the overnight hours, allowing SW
flow to return WAA to the region. Lows Monday night will fall
into the upper 30s to low 40s thanks to cloud cover and the
aforementioned WAA.

Monday will be very warm for the first week of March, as a
finger of very warm air from the SE US is trying to make its way
into the Finger Lakes region. Temperatures are expected to climb
into the upper 50s to mid 60s across the CWA. This puts us in
range of record high temperatures at our climate sites, with 64
currently forecasted at SYR (record is 63) and a few degrees
within the record at BGM. The warm temperatures will remain
overnight as lows, forecast to be in the mid to upper 40s,
should be at or above their record warmest for all 3 climate
sites.

Tuesday will see slightly cooler temperatures, but highs will
still top out in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A small surface low
is modeled to develop along a shortwave trough riding the NW
portion of the ridge of high pressure now sitting over the
Atlantic. This low will quickly move in a northerly trajectory
out of the Mid-Atlantic and into our region starting Tuesday
morning. How far west the low moves is still a little uncertain,
with the best chances for rain being east of I-81 during the
day Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
350 AM Update...

A developing trough over the eastern US will be the main
weather driver for this period, although much uncertainty
remains in its development.

Current model trends are starting to come together on a mid-
level trough amplifying as it swings into the eastern US from
the central US, tilting slightly negative as it moves through
the TN/AL/GA. This should develop a surface low across the
Carolinas that will track to the NE. The timing and track of
this low is still very uncertain as solutions differ by 24-30hrs
in the timing of the storm moving into our region. There is also
a difference as to how much cooler air moves into the region
from the north as the low moves into the region, which could
impact precip types, especially during overnight hours. This
can be seen in Euro Ensemble Mos guidance showing 6-7 standard
deviations in forecasted highs and lows. Current forecast relied
on the NBM as a basis, with manual edits made where ensemble
GFS and Euro ensembles showed better chances for rain.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
650 AM Update

A mixture of lower end MVFR Fuel Alternate and IFR restrictions
are forecast to prevail areawide the rest of today. Conditions
look to deteriorate even further by this evening and overnight,
down to LIFR/ Alt Minimum categories.

Light rain continues for much of the day at the rest of the
terminals; with prevailing MVFR Fuel Alt, and occasional IFR
restrictions. RME & SYR could see tempo IFR restrictions
between about 17-22z as a steady batch of rain moves through.
ITH is forecast to fall to IFR by mid to late morning, and
remain there through the end of the taf period, with rain then
drizzle and mist persisting. ELM looks to hover between MVFR
Fuel Atl, IFR and Alternate Minimum Thresholds much of the day,
and right into this evening, with IFR becoming more likely
overnight here. AVP looks to remain borderline MVFR Fuel Alt to
IFR all day as well, with periods of rain and mist...IFR is
more likely here after 19-21z through the evening and overnight
hours. BGM is already IFR (CIGs) and is forecast to remain IFR
or lower through the entire taf period. Below Alt Minimum
restrictions are possible here, especially toward and after
sunset, then through the overnight period.

Low level wind shear is likely morning as a low level jet
develops ahead of the approaching low. It will dissipate by
the midday hours.

Outlook...

Sunday...Lingering IFR CIGs possible in the morning, then
gradually becoming MVFR most locations in the afternoon. AVP
could become VFR by afternoon.

Sunday night through Tuesday...Mainly VFR, but occasional MVFR
also possible.

Wednesday...A chance for rain, and associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG/MJM
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...JTC
LONG TERM...JTC
AVIATION...MJM

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather