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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY

404
FXUS61 KBGM 150718
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
318 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and mainly cloudy conditions are expected to remain through
the weekend, along with occasional showers. Temperatures will
gradually warm up next week, along with an increasing chance of
showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
245 AM Update...

A stratus deck clouds the region tonight as a stationary front
remains draped across central PA. 850mb winds out of the SSW
will continue to pump moist air over the front, while 700mb
winds out of the WNW will push a warm air inversion into the
region that will help trap this moisture below the inversion and
keep the stratus clouds around into the afternoon hours.
Also enhancing the moisture in the low levels is surface winds
out of the ESE pushing marine air into the Twin Tiers. Some
clearing is expected north of the Southern Tier by this
afternoon, but the Twin Tiers should remain cloudy through
Monday.

Rain showers are expected to develop along and just north of the
stationary front, bringing scattered showers to NEPA and
isolated showers to the Southern Tier through the afternoon. A
few isolated showers may pop off north of the Southern Tier this
afternoon, but if they do develop, they should be weak and
isolated. Shower chances diminish in the evening as the
shortwave centered over the Mid-Atlantic driving them moves
east of the area. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper
60s across NEPA where clouds and rain will help keep temps
down. NY will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with the warmest
temps in the Mohawk Valley where clearing is expected early in
the afternoon.

Similar conditions are expected Sunday night with the stationary
front remaining across central PA and marine moisture trapped
near the surface. Temps will be in the mid to upper 50s and with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s as well, fog may develop
across the region.

On Monday, the stationary front is expected to remain south of
the CWA through most of the day as easterly flow will keep the
cooler marine airmass across the Twin Tiers. Temps will be a
couple degrees warmer, with upper 60s to low 70s across the Twin
Tiers and mid to upper 70s across areas to the north where more
sunshine is expected. Some CAMs are showing isolated rain
showers developing, but the influence of high pressure and a mid
level inversion should keep most dry.


&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
230 AM Update...

The current zonal pattern wavers a bit as an incoming shortwave
brings more rain showers Monday night and into Tuesday. A broad
upper level open wave maintains overhead, and brings us
southwesterly flow going into Wednesday, with chances for rain
showers continuing as a weak warm front moves into the area. The
good news is temperatures will increase because of this; from
the low to mid 70s on Tuesday to the low to mid 80s on
Wednesday. The not so good news is a low pressure system begins
forming just south of the Great Lakes region, which will
progress into our area during the long term period, which is
discussed below.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
230 AM Update...

The broad upper level trough will deepen as it moves east on
Thursday, enhancing southerly flow and increasing moisture
transport. By late Thursday night, a cold front will sweep
through the area, bringing a greater coverage of showers and
storms. Showers will continue Friday as model guidance suggests
another wave moves in. Temperatures will climb into the low to
mid 80s and Thursday, and then cool Friday behind the front as
northwesterly follows. The upper level trough moves east late in
the long term period Saturday, and one more wave comes in from
the northwest, bringing rain showers.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
0200 AM Update...

A stratus deck continues to sit overhead, and will remain into
the late morning/early afternoon hours. Current thinking is the
cloud deck will help limit cooling, which will keep conditions
from falling into IFR restrictions across much of the area.
There will be some scattered rain showers across the Twin Tiers
tonight, with AVP having the best chance to see some precip. A
few showers may make their way into BGM, but was unsure if they
would impact the terminal so kept the mention of rain out of the
TAF.

BGM currently has the best chance to see IFR ceilings later
tonight, with upslope flow of relatively moist air to the
terminal. If showers do briefly occur at BGM, this will only
enhance the chance for IFR ceilings to develop. If they do, they
should lift by mid morning. With a stationary boundary to our
south, AVP/BGM/ELM should remain under clouds and MVFR ceilings
through the day. Clearing to VFR at ITH/SYR/RME is expected by
the early afternoon.

Fog may develop Sunday night as temperatures and dewpoints fall
into the upper 50s with light winds. Confidence was not high
enough to include IFR conditions, but they cannot be ruled out,
especially at AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH.


Outlook...

Sunday night...IFR conditions possible with fog development.

Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in isolated to scattered showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and
thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional
restrictions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...JTC
SHORT TERM...KL
LONG TERM...KL
AVIATION...JTC

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather