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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
404 FXUS61 KBGM 150718 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 318 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool and mainly cloudy conditions are expected to remain through the weekend, along with occasional showers. Temperatures will gradually warm up next week, along with an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms by the middle of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 245 AM Update... A stratus deck clouds the region tonight as a stationary front remains draped across central PA. 850mb winds out of the SSW will continue to pump moist air over the front, while 700mb winds out of the WNW will push a warm air inversion into the region that will help trap this moisture below the inversion and keep the stratus clouds around into the afternoon hours. Also enhancing the moisture in the low levels is surface winds out of the ESE pushing marine air into the Twin Tiers. Some clearing is expected north of the Southern Tier by this afternoon, but the Twin Tiers should remain cloudy through Monday. Rain showers are expected to develop along and just north of the stationary front, bringing scattered showers to NEPA and isolated showers to the Southern Tier through the afternoon. A few isolated showers may pop off north of the Southern Tier this afternoon, but if they do develop, they should be weak and isolated. Shower chances diminish in the evening as the shortwave centered over the Mid-Atlantic driving them moves east of the area. Temperatures today will be in the mid to upper 60s across NEPA where clouds and rain will help keep temps down. NY will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s, with the warmest temps in the Mohawk Valley where clearing is expected early in the afternoon. Similar conditions are expected Sunday night with the stationary front remaining across central PA and marine moisture trapped near the surface. Temps will be in the mid to upper 50s and with dewpoints in the mid to upper 50s as well, fog may develop across the region. On Monday, the stationary front is expected to remain south of the CWA through most of the day as easterly flow will keep the cooler marine airmass across the Twin Tiers. Temps will be a couple degrees warmer, with upper 60s to low 70s across the Twin Tiers and mid to upper 70s across areas to the north where more sunshine is expected. Some CAMs are showing isolated rain showers developing, but the influence of high pressure and a mid level inversion should keep most dry. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 230 AM Update... The current zonal pattern wavers a bit as an incoming shortwave brings more rain showers Monday night and into Tuesday. A broad upper level open wave maintains overhead, and brings us southwesterly flow going into Wednesday, with chances for rain showers continuing as a weak warm front moves into the area. The good news is temperatures will increase because of this; from the low to mid 70s on Tuesday to the low to mid 80s on Wednesday. The not so good news is a low pressure system begins forming just south of the Great Lakes region, which will progress into our area during the long term period, which is discussed below. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 AM Update... The broad upper level trough will deepen as it moves east on Thursday, enhancing southerly flow and increasing moisture transport. By late Thursday night, a cold front will sweep through the area, bringing a greater coverage of showers and storms. Showers will continue Friday as model guidance suggests another wave moves in. Temperatures will climb into the low to mid 80s and Thursday, and then cool Friday behind the front as northwesterly follows. The upper level trough moves east late in the long term period Saturday, and one more wave comes in from the northwest, bringing rain showers. && .AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 0200 AM Update... A stratus deck continues to sit overhead, and will remain into the late morning/early afternoon hours. Current thinking is the cloud deck will help limit cooling, which will keep conditions from falling into IFR restrictions across much of the area. There will be some scattered rain showers across the Twin Tiers tonight, with AVP having the best chance to see some precip. A few showers may make their way into BGM, but was unsure if they would impact the terminal so kept the mention of rain out of the TAF. BGM currently has the best chance to see IFR ceilings later tonight, with upslope flow of relatively moist air to the terminal. If showers do briefly occur at BGM, this will only enhance the chance for IFR ceilings to develop. If they do, they should lift by mid morning. With a stationary boundary to our south, AVP/BGM/ELM should remain under clouds and MVFR ceilings through the day. Clearing to VFR at ITH/SYR/RME is expected by the early afternoon. Fog may develop Sunday night as temperatures and dewpoints fall into the upper 50s with light winds. Confidence was not high enough to include IFR conditions, but they cannot be ruled out, especially at AVP/BGM/ELM/ITH. Outlook... Sunday night...IFR conditions possible with fog development. Monday through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible in isolated to scattered showers. Wednesday through Thursday...Coverage of showers and thunderstorms increase, especially each afternoon. Occasional restrictions likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...KL LONG TERM...KL AVIATION...JTC
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |