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County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
000 FXUS61 KBGM 221926 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 326 PM EDT Wed Mar 22 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain in control through the afternoon. A warm front will move through overnight, bringing very warm temperatures and rain showers tonight into Thursday. A cold front will move through Thursday afternoon, bringing rain showers into Thursday evening and a return of cool temperatures into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 315 PM Forecast... A few hours of clearing late this morning into the early afternoon allowed temperatures to rise into the upper 50s to low 60s across the area. Clouds are moving in from the west so heating should be peaking here within the next hour or so. A few returns are showing up on the radar, moving across the Finger Lakes but the boundary layer is so dry that all of this is virga. PoPs were left in across CNY as higher elevations may be able to see a few showers if some heavier precip can develop but most locations shouldn`t see anything given the very dry air. A warm front will push through tonight, bringing rain showers to the area after midnight and keeping temps in the mid 40s across much of the region with higher elevations dropping to the low 40s. This is very warm for the end of March, with temps 15-20 degrees above normal! Weak isentropic lift behind the front will allow for scattered rain showers to continue through the overnight hours and into Thursday morning. A weak trough will develop ahead of an approaching cold front, moving into the region from the Great Lakes. The front currently looks to move through the area during the afternoon hours, which combined with mid level vorticity advection over the area and the surface trough ahead of the front will generate stratiform showers along the front, slowly moving from NW to SE through the afternoon and into the late evening. Temps on Thursday will start off very warm, rising into the upper 50s to low 60s by early afternoon. The cold front pushing through will drop temps into the 40s across NY by the evening but NEPA will still be in the mid 50s into the late evening as the front slogs its way SE. There is a very shallow area of CAPE over NEPA Thursday afternoon, but it looks like warm air aloft will cap this and keep any real convection from developing. There is a chance for general thunder in the area but confidence was not high enough to include this in the forecast. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... High pressure will build into the region Friday allowing for some clearing across CNY further away from the frontal boundary may still give NE PA a passing shower or two. Temperatures look to fall to around freezing with some radiational cooling. Low pressure along the boundary looks is still modeled to track from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. The departing high pressure to our north delivers marginally cold air for possible mixed precipitation early Saturday. However, warm air advection looks to quickly win out given the modeled track of the low pressure. most m modeled soundings do show the warmer temperatures moving in faster aloft, so continued the mention of some light freezing rain. With temperatures warming into the 40`s everyone should change to rain during the day. Any snow accumulation looks light and confined to Oneida county and the higher elevations in the Western Catskills and south of Syracuse. Any ice accumulation looks very light and may not accumulate at all given the marginal surface temperatures. Ensemble guidance has also trended downward on the flooding threat this weekend but a few points hitting minor are not out of the question. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Return to northwest flow Saturday night and Sunday with clouds and lingering lake effect precipitation as temperatures look to be in the 30`s and 40`s (some low 50`s in NE PA). Some additional minor snow accumulations are possible in the same locations as Saturday morning. Some temporary clearing from a transient high pressure system Sunday night into Monday with similar temperatures to the prior day. Ensemble guidance is actually more divergent on the possible outcomes with the next system compared to 24 hours ago. The main theme though is to slow down any precipitation arrival till Monday night and keep some rain and snow chances around, perhaps to as late as early Wednesday. Lows look to be around 30 with highs in the 40`s, so both rain and snow still possible. && .AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Clear skies across the area this morning will turn cloudy this afternoon as a high deck of thick cirrus moves overhead. VFR conditions are expected through the evening across all terminals. A few showers may pop up across the area but the low levels of the atmosphere are so dry that precip should not reach the ground. Steadier rain is expected to move into the area tonight as a warm front moves through. This will allow for ceilings to fall to MVFR into the morning hours at all terminals. AVP/BGM/ITH/ELM will see a lull in showers during the afternoon but ceilings should fall to Fuel Alt as a warmer airmass moves into the area from the SW and allows ceilings to fall. SYR and RME are expected to have showers through the morning hours with ceilings at Fuel Alt. Towards the end of the TAF period, some guidance was hinting at ceilings falling to IFR across all terminals but confidence in this occurring was too low to put it in all the TAFs at this time. Currently, the most confidence in IFR ceilings is at BGM and RME during the early afternoon due to wind direction an consistency in model runs. All other terminals were left at low end Fuel Alt ceilings as either the wind direction was not optimal for low ceilings or rain showers were absent for an extended period. Outlook... Thursday afternoon and night...Restrictions possible with rain showers likely at times. Friday...Mainly VFR; Slight chance for showers and restrictions at AVP. Saturday...Restrictions expected Saturday with a mix of rain and snow. Sunday... A few rain and snow showers could lead to brief restrictions at the New York terminals. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JTC NEAR TERM...JTC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...JTC
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |