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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
000 FXUS61 KBGM 270531 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 131 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains in control through tonight with calm and dry conditions. A warm front swings through the region Saturday through Sunday bringing a chance of rain showers and isolated thunderstorms. Much warmer weather is forecast Sunday and especially Monday, with above average temperatures continuing into the middle of next week. The best chance for rain and thunderstorms will be on Tuesday as a front crosses the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1230 AM Update... High clouds have moved into the region allowing temperatures to fall in a more steady manor. Minor changes were made to update temperatures with current observations. Otherwise previous forecast remains on track at this time. 720 PM Update... Forecast remains mostly on-track and just delayed the arrival of clouds later tonight by a couple of hours. 230 PM Update Dry and mainly clear conditions continue this evening under high pressure. Winds remain light and variable into the evening, as temperatures fall back into the upper 40s to mid-50s by sunset. High level clouds gradually increase overnight, especially after midnight as the surface high slides off the East Coast. The pressure gradient begins to increase between the high and incoming frontal system; south winds will gradually increase between 5 to 15 mph for the second half of the overnight. Temperatures fall fairly quickly this evening, but then level off late at night with the gradual increase of clouds and winds...expect overnight lows ranging in the 30s to low 40s. Saturday morning looks to start off dry with plenty of low and mid level dry air still in place. High clouds lower and thicken through the day. There are very minor timing difference in the CAMS, likely depending on just how fast the low levels can moisture up. Overall, the consensus is for light rain to break out west of I-81 by late morning to early afternoon...with some light rain spreading east of I-81 during the late afternoon and evening hours. With the dry air in place initially, temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to mid-50s later in the day due to wet bulbing as the cool rain falls. The warmest temperatures are expected across the I-90 corridor to Mohawk Valley where morning sunshine only gradually fades and showers hold off until early evening...Highs look to reach 60-65 degrees here. The rest of the forecast area will see highs in the mid to upper 50s. Rainfall amounts during the daytime hours will be light; generally up to a tenth of an inch. Scattered showers and clouds linger Saturday night with the warm frontal boundary becoming quasi-stationary over the area. Later at night elevated instability arrives and there could be a few thunderstorms, especially over CNY. Forecast soundings show a strong inversion remaining present over the area below 925mb, but then potentially several hundred or more J/Kg of elevated CAPE over the Finger Lakes and Central NY late Saturday night. It will be milder with lows in the 40s to near 50. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 3 pm update... All of CNY and NEPA will be in the warm sector this period. A broad upper level ridge will be across the Ohio Valley into the northeast US. High temperatures will be in the 70s Sunday followed by mid 70s to low 80s Monday. Dewpoints from the mid 50s to around 60 will give a hint of some summer humidity. Low temperatures will be in the 50s. Monday night lows in the Finger Lakes will be around 60 as clouds come in. Diurnal showers and a few thunderstorms are possible both days. There is a slightly better chance Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak surface front moves through. Monday night rain chances increase as a weak warm front approaches ahead of a cold front for Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 330 pm update... A cold front will move through the region Tuesday and Tuesday evening with showers likely and scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures return to the 70s midday before the steadier rain moves in. Instability on ensemble guidance is noteworthy, around 500-1,000 J/KG surface CAPE with dewpoints into the low 60`s. In terms of any thunderstorm organization 0-6KM bulk shear is modeled to be around 20-40 knots ahead of the front which may lead to thunderstorm organization into linear segments with a gusty wind threat. Of course this far out timing of the front can have a big impact on instability. Lapse rates look poor for any strong to severe storms too. So will continue to monitor over the next several days. After a break in showers late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, another system slowly moves through our area as the upper level broad ridge tries to build back in. In general there is a warm west southwest flow. A frontal system across the Ohio Valley slowly sags southeast into NY/PA Wednesday to Friday. NEPA has the better chance of dry weather Wednesday into Thursday morning compared to CNY. High temperatures in the 70s Tuesday and Wednesday will fall into the 60s Friday. Low temperatures will be mostly in the 50s. && .AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure slides east of our region this evening with high clouds moving in. VFR conditions expected at all terminals overnight and into tomorrow morning. LLWS may be possible from 08-12Z at SYR early tomorrow morning, but confidence was not high enough to include in the TAF. MVFR to Fuel Alt Restrictions return at all sites tomorrow afternoon as scattered rain showers move in. Fuel Alt to IFR conditions settle in at most terminals tomorrow evening. Higher confidence that ELM/ITH/BGM may see IFR ceilings. Outlook... Saturday afternoon through Sunday..Restrictions possible in rain showers, especially in the afternoon and evening hours. Monday...Mainly VFR expected. Perhaps an isolated shower or t`storm in the afternoon/evening. Tuesday...Restrictions likely in rain showers and thunderstorms, especially in the afternoon and evening. Wednesday...Mainly VFR; slight chance for a shower. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...ES/MJM SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...MWG/TAC AVIATION...ES/MJM
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |