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County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
000 FXUS61 KBGM 271743 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 143 PM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Cool unsettled weather continues through tonight with spotty showers. Brief high pressure Wednesday yields dry and milder conditions. A strong low pressure system will cause rain to develop Thursday, which may mix with or change to wet snow Thursday night into Friday as colder air overspreads the region. Snow accumulations will be possible, especially higher terrain. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 140 PM Update... Mostly cloudy cool day in progress; highs ranging from lower 40s to around 50 in Central NY and upper 40s-mid 50s in Northeast PA. We are still set to get a batch of showers from a shortwave passage embedded within brisk upper flow on its way to becoming zonal late afternoon-evening; then models have better consolidated for another wave zipping through with isentropic lift and moisture late tonight-very early Wednesday. While light, rain chances have been increased considerably for late tonight with that second wave especially Twin Tiers- Catskills southward, before ridging is able to dry things out mid morning through afternoon Wednesday. Previous discussion... Cold front has pushed southeast of the area, but still plenty clouds and light rain showers lingering behind the front. Temperatures will be cool today, with highs generally in the upper 40s for most areas. Cold air advection and westerly flow off the lakes will make for another cloudy day with some disorganized shower activity. Surface ridge of high pressure starts to build in from the north this afternoon and evening. However, a midlevel shortwave pushes into western NY around 0Z tonight and crosses the region through the overnight hours. Another round of light rain showers will be possible tonight with the passing wave and even some snow flakes could mix in across the north, but conditions will start to improve as the wave exits early Wednesday morning. Although the showers come to and end on Wednesday, there will still be plenty of low level moisture around. Latest guidance shows cloud cover persisting into Wednesday afternoon, but finally scours out and some breaks of sunshine will be possible late in the day with high temperatures into the low to mid 50s. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... An upper level low pressure system will be moving through the southern Plains Wednesday night. Meanwhile, Hurricane Zeta will be making landfall along the Gulf Coast. Then the remnants of Zeta rapidly move northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic states per the latest NHC forecast track. These features, along with a northern stream upper level shortwave will combine to create a rather complex storm system for Thursday into Friday. After a dry night Wednesday night, overrunning rainfall pushes northward into Northeast PA and then into Central NY on Thursday. Meanwhile, a large area of Canadian high pressure will be building to our north. With ample moisture from the remnants of Zeta in place, some of the rainfall may be moderate to heavy at times Thursday and Thursday evening. Greatest chance for locally heavy rainfall will be across the Poconos in Northeast PA and this is where WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rainfall in their Day 3 Outlook. Highs on Thursday will likely be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. The above mentioned Canadian high pressure system will dive southward Thursday night and Friday, supplying the region with much colder air. At the same time, the storm system will likely be moving from the Mid-Atlantic states to off the southern New England Coast and possibly strengthening as it does so. With precipitation continuing across our area and the incoming cold air, rain may mix with and eventually changeover to snow, especially across the higher elevations of Central NY and the Catskills. That being said, there is still a lot of uncertainty regarding how far south and east the storm system tracks and how much it deepens. Some models, such as the GFS continue to hint at the storm being too far south and east to line up timing- wise with the incoming cold air. This would limit accumulating snow potential. However, other model and ensemble solutions track the storm system further north and bring more accumulating snow to the region as it would changeover quicker. With this large amount of uncertainty, it is still too early to talk about snowfall amounts. If there is accumulating snow, amounts will be highly elevation dependent, as is typical with early season snow events. This will continue to be watched as we continue to progress through the week. Any lingering rain or snow showers will likely end by the end of the day on Friday as the storm system pulls away from the coast and high pressure moves in. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The main story for Friday night will be the cold temperatures. As high pressure begins to take control, skies will clear and winds will diminish. With a very cold airmass in place, lows will likely at least get down to the 20s, with some areas getting into the teens. High pressure will bring plenty of sunshine for Saturday. However with the chilly airmass still in place, highs will likely only be topping out in the 40s for the majority of the area. A cold front will then approach the area on Sunday, bringing a chance of rain showers, especially during the afternoon and in Central NY. Highs Sunday will likely be in the upper 40s to mid 50s. As temperatures fall into the 30s Sunday night, any lingering showers may mix with or change over to snow showers. Lake effect rain and snow showers are then possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise, Monday looks partly sunny with highs in the 40s. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A pair of weak disturbances will zip across the terminals during this TAF period; one late afternoon-evening, then the other late tonight to dawn Wednesday. In addition to moisture that remains trapped for least minor ceiling restrictions, these disturbances will cause further deterioration to fuel alternate or IFR as well as some light rain and/or mist. Ceilings will start to improve a bit after dawn Wednesday, as a ridge of high pressure moves into the region, scattering or lifting ceilings to higher end MVFR or even VFR. Winds will be northwest or variable mostly under 5 knots through tonight; becoming light southwest on Wednesday. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night...Mainly VFR courtesy of high pressure passing by just to our south, dominating our weather. Thursday...Restrictions expected to develop as rain moves in from southwest to northeast from low pressure system. Thursday night through Friday...Back end of system includes rain mixing with/changing to wet snow; associated restrictions. Friday night through Saturday night...Mainly VFR with high pressure. Sunday...Frontal system moves in with a good chance of showers and possible restrictions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK/MDP NEAR TERM...MPK/MDP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...MDP
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |