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County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
County Warning Area [CWA]: BGM
Regional NWS Weather Office: Binghamton, NY
000 FXUS61 KBGM 221131 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 631 AM EST Fri Jan 22 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A clipper system will bring snow showers to NY and PA through Saturday, while chilly temperatures linger through next week. Another storm will move into the Mid-Atlantic early next week and bring snow to our region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... A clipper system will swing winds to a west-northwest direction today, shifting a lake effect snow band southward toward LaFayette, Auburn, and Oneida. This snow band will intensify later this afternoon and overnight. Given the high levels of lake induced instability and upslope flow coming off Ontario, high end advisory criteria snow amounts appear certain. In addition, a very unstable lower atmosphere will yield conditions conducive to squall formation across our NY counties and possibly the northern tier of PA through late this afternoon. Little more than a dusting of snow is forecast outside of lake bands over any given 12-hour period. But squalls will cause quick, localized accumulations of 1 to 2 inches and brief whiteouts. High pressure rotating out of the Ohio Valley will weaken snow showers Saturday afternoon as chilly air rolls into the area. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 335 AM Update: A few lingering light snow showers will be possible across the Finger Lakes Region Saturday evening, but otherwise a mainly dry night will be in store as high pressure moves into the area by Sunday morning. With 850mb temperatures still around 16C, low temperatures are expected to be in the middle single digits to mid teens. Some clearing is expected across Oneida County and therefore lows there may be a few degrees below zero (especially the northern portion of the county). In addition, while winds will be slowly decreasing as the night progresses, winds may still gust to 15-25 mph at times. This may result in wind chills in the -15F to -20F range in northern Oneida County. A Wind Chill Advisory may be needed at a later time there. Sunday will be quiet with partly sunny skies as high pressure will be in control. While temperatures will still be several degrees below normal, it will not be nearly as cold as Saturday. It will also not be nearly as windy. High temperatures are expected to be in the upper teens to mid 20s, with parts of the Wyoming Valley possibly approaching 30. High pressure moves east of the area Sunday night. Generally partly cloudy skies are expected, although clouds will increase somewhat late in the night/early Monday morning ahead of the next system. Lows are expected to be in the upper single digits to upper teens, with lower single digits in northern Oneida County. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 335 AM Update: The potential for a storm system to impact the area late Monday through midday Tuesday continues to increase, especially for Northeast PA. Otherwise, mainly quiet weather is expected for much of the remainder of the week after this system. Model guidance continues to be in good agreement that most of the area will be dry Monday morning and early afternoon with just continued increasing clouds. Low pressure is expected to track east-northeastward from the southern Plains to the Mid- Atlantic Monday through Tuesday. While it is still uncertain how far north the precipitation shield will get due to a blocking high to the north, guidance continues to trend a bit further north. While the 00Z GFS is still one of the further south solutions, even this model has trended northward with each model cycle. With this forecast package, we increased PoPs to likely for most of Northeast PA for the Monday night timeframe. Still only chance PoPs at this time for the Southern Tier of NY northward as it remains highly uncertain how far north the snow will get. The storm system likely begins to move east/away from the area by late Tuesday, therefore allowing the snow to taper off from west to east. Too early at this time to talk about snowfall amounts, but the potential for at least a plowable snow is increasing. Highs Monday and Tuesday are expected to be in the mid 20s to lower 30s. High pressure is then expected to keep conditions mainly quiet for the remainder of the workweek along with seasonably cold temperatures. Some model guidance is hinting at another storm system developing off the Mid-Atlantic or Southeast coast around the Thursday timeframe, but right now it looks to stay well south of our region. This could change as we get closer though, so it is worth watching. && .AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Snow showers will spread across the region today, first affecting areas near the KRME terminal this morning, then dropping toward KSYR between 14z and 16z. Some of these snow showers will develop into squalls with brief LIFR conditions possible. Predicting which terminals these squalls will affect is very difficult and will need to be handled with amended forecasts. A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will degrade to IFR and MVFR today as snow shower activity increases. West winds will gust over 20 knots at times, causing blowing snow. Snow showers will decrease Friday night for a short period of time, allowing VFR conditions to prevail at most terminals. Outlook... Saturday...More of the same with snow showers, low clouds, and MVFR-IFR restrictions. Highest chances shift toward KSYR, KITH and KBGM by Saturday morning. Saturday night through Monday morning...high pressure and VFR conditions. Monday afternoon through Tuesday...Possible restrictions with snow. Accumulations possible on runways. Highest chance for restrictions at KAVP, KELM and KBGM. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Saturday for NYZ017-018-036-037. Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for NYZ009. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...DJP
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |